Abstract

Elephants often make trade-offs between crop-raiding and risk avoidance in response to land use and land cover change. Here, we investigated seasonal and temporal drivers of crop-raiding patterns of Asian elephants surrounding Khao Ang Rue Nai Wildlife Sanctuary (KARN), Thailand. We first explored crop-raiding changes from 2010 to 2020. We then assessed how land-use change predicted crop-raiding incidence patterns using Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) based on different elephant group types in 2010–2012, 2013–2016, and 2017–2020 time periods. Our results showed an increase in crop-raiding incidents from 6 % to 69 % between 2010 and 2012 and 2017–2020, with mixed groups raiding crops the most. Crop-raiding patterns for lone groups and mixed groups showed seasonal patterns, with incidents increasing in the dry season. Additionally, farms were particularly vulnerable to crop-raiding, with risk increasing based on the following criteria: where agricultural area covered up to 70 % of a 1 km², within 4 km from forest edge, within 6 km from villages, within 2 km from road, with mean elevation less than 100 m, and with low human population density. Our findings demonstrate that different elephant group types respond to land-use changes differently, with reading patterns reflecting a trade-off between the resources abstained by crop-raiding and greater risk of human conflict. Informed land use planning surrounding the park is therefore necessary to mitigate human-elephant conflict and benefit elephant conservation in the region.